Measuring Changes in Expected Lifespan at Birth

In 1900, life expectancy in the United States was about 47 years. By mid-century, it had risen to 66 years for men and 71 years for women, and by 2000, it reached 78 years. This 66% increase reflects an average annual rise of about 0.33 years, a benchmark often referred to as "radical life extension."

A recent study by Olshansky and colleagues examined life expectancy trends between 1990 and 2019 in the world's longest-lived countries, including Japan, Hong Kong, and South Korea. The researchers also included the United States as a comparison, despite its lower life expectancy due to rising middle-age mortality rates and health disparities.

What the Study Found

The study revealed that the pace of life expectancy increases has slowed significantly in the last 30 years. While some countries, like South Korea and Hong Kong, met the benchmark of a 0.3-year annual increase during specific decades, most nations saw a deceleration. From 2010 to 2019, life expectancy increased by less than 0.2 years annually in eight out of ten populations studied.

Key findings include:

• Survivorship to 100 increased by only 1-2% in most countries over 30 years, with Japan and Hong Kong seeing slightly higher gains (4% and 6%, respectively).

• Eliminating all deaths before age 50 would only extend life expectancy by 1-1.5 years, indicating that current gains hinge on reducing mortality at older ages.

• Each additional year of life expectancy now requires greater reductions in all-cause mortality (ACM) than in the past. For example, Japanese men would need a 9.5% reduction in ACM to extend life expectancy by one year, while Japanese women would require a 20.3% reduction.

What Does This Mean?

The dramatic 20th-century increases in life expectancy stemmed from improved living conditions and medical interventions that reduced disease-related mortality. Examples include:

• Economic prosperity and tobacco control policies in Hong Kong during the 1990s.

• Japan's national healthcare system, which lowered infant mortality and cerebrovascular deaths.

However, these gains primarily addressed disease-associated mortality rather than aging-associated mortality. Like an oak tree that eventually succumbs to accumulated stress despite optimal conditions, human aging imposes biological limits on lifespan.

Are We Approaching the Limit of Human Lifespan?

The study suggests that while life expectancy may continue to rise modestly, the maximum human lifespan has stagnated. For example:

• Achieving a radical 22.5-year increase in Japanese women’s life expectancy (to 110 years) would require 70% of women living to 100 and 6% living to 150—far beyond observed records.

• Models suggest there is less than a 1-in-10,000 chance of anyone living beyond 125 in a given year, absent breakthroughs in aging biology.

Currently, no treatments exist to slow the biological process of aging, which involves cellular damage accumulation and eventual organ failure.

Future Breakthroughs: Hope for Lifespan Extension?

While the study highlights current limitations, it does not account for future medical and technological advancements that could transform human longevity. Promising areas of research include:

• Geroprotective Drugs: Medications like rapamycin have extended lifespan in mice by 9-14%, offering hope for similar effects in humans.

• Genetic Engineering: Lifespan increases in simple organisms like yeast and worms suggest potential applications in humans.

• Human-Machine Interfaces: Innovations in artificial intelligence and brain-computer interfaces could redefine lifespan by allowing us to "download" consciousness into machines.

These advancements, though speculative today, could revolutionize how we think about human life and aging in the coming decades.

The Bottom Line

The study by Olshansky et al. concludes that we are nearing the limits of lifespan imposed by aging biology. However, history demonstrates humanity’s ability to overcome seemingly insurmountable limits. Technologies and therapies once considered science fiction—like flying or artificial intelligence—are now part of everyday life. Similarly, breakthroughs in aging science may one day allow us to live longer and healthier lives.

Until then, the best strategies for reducing mortality risk remain timeless:

• Exercise regularly.

• Eat a balanced diet.

• Stay socially connected.

• Prioritize quality sleep.

At Foothills Wellness Clinic, we support your journey toward a longer, healthier life with personalized care and evidence-based wellness practices.

"The future belongs to those who believe in the beauty of their dreams." – Eleanor Roosevelt

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Original Article by: Samantha Lipman, Kathryn Birkenbach, Peter Attia